Press Release

MEDIA ADVISORY: The Race for the Women’s Vote Too Close to Call

Female Voters Surveyed on the Candidates, the Candidates’ Wives and Other Issues Affecting the Race

Early Results Show Significant Favorability Gap Between First Lady and Teresa Heinz-Kerry

What: Release of a new poll of American women regarding 2004 election voting plans, opinions of the candidate’s wives, and other key issues and attitudes affecting the election. The poll was conducted by comScore Networks, a leading market research and polling firm, between October 16 and 20th. Results include breakouts by martial status and three swing states – Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Who: Magid M. Abraham, Ph.D. President, CEO and Co-Founder, comScore Networks

When: Monday, October 25, 2004 at 10:00 AM

Where: National Press Club
529 14th St. NW, 13th Floor
Washington, DC 20045
First Amendment Lounge

Note: The following key findings are part of an in-depth survey of the opinions and issues affecting women voters’ election decisions. The full survey results will be released at the press conference on Monday.

  • At the national level, nearly 60 percent (58.2%) of registered women voters rate Laura Bush as either favorable or highly favorable (rating of 4 or 5). A similar, although slightly lower percentage of women voters in key swing states hold similar opinions.

October 16 – 20, 2004

Source: comScore Networks

What is your opinion of Laura Bush as First Lady?
Non-Swing States Florida Ohio Pennsylvania National
Highly Unfavorable (1) 5.2% 6.9% 4.0% 6.4% 5.6%
2 7.2% 9.9% 8.6% 7.9% 8.2%
3 27.6% 26.5% 31.5% 30.7% 27.9%
4 17.1% 13.4% 13.8% 15.9% 16.3%
Highly Favorable (5) 43.0% 43.3% 42.2% 39.1% 41.9%

n(Non-Swing States) = 1,001, n(Florida) = 552, n(Ohio) = 452, n(Pennsylvania) = 374

Margin of error +/- 2.0.

Respondent Pool: Registered female voters who are likely to vote.

  • Approximately 30 percent (29.9%) of registered women voters rate Teresa Heinz-Kerry as either favorable or highly favorable (rating of 4 or 5). Conversely, 40.5 percent of registered women voters have either unfavorable or highly unfavorable opinions of Ms. Heinz-Kerry (ratings of 1 or 2).

October 16 – 20, 2004

Source: comScore Networks

If Teresa Heinz-Kerry were to become First Lady, how favorably would you rate her?
Non-Swing States Florida Ohio Pennsylvania National
Highly Unfavorable (1) 28.7% 28.2% 30.3% 25.6% 27.3%
2 13.9% 15.1% 13.1% 13.0% 13.2%
3 29.6% 27.1% 33.0% 29.4% 29.6%
4 17.2% 16.2% 14.1% 18.4% 18.4%
Highly Favorable (5) 10.5% 13.4% 9.5% 13.6% 11.5%

n(Non-Swing States) = 1,001, n(Florida) = 552, n(Ohio) = 452, n(Pennsylvania) = 374

Margin of error +/- 2.0.

Respondent Pool: Registered female voters who are likely to vote.

  • 51.5 percent of registered women voters say their impression of the First Lady impacts their voting decision to some degree (rating of 2-5). Impressions of the First Lady are slightly more important among married women than unmarried women.

October 16 – 20, 2004

Source: comScore Networks

How much does your impression of the First Lady impact your decision in voting for the President?
Non-Swing States Florida Ohio Pennsylvania National
Does not impact decision (1) 46.4% 51.1% 48.9% 48.1% 48.5%
2 17.1% 13.0% 14.7% 18.2% 16.3%
3 21.2% 18.5% 20.5% 19.4% 19.9%
4 9.9% 9.0% 11.6% 10.0% 9.7%
Greatly impacts decision (5) 5.5% 8.4% 4.3% 4.3% 5.6%

n(Non-Swing States) = 1,001, n(Florida) = 552, n(Ohio) = 452, n(Pennsylvania) = 374

Margin of error +/- 2.0.

Respondent Pool: Registered female voters who are likely to vote.

  • comScore also found that women’s opinions of the candidates’ wives correlate strongly with their voting plans. For example, of the 58 percent of women that rate Laura Bush favorably, some 70 percent say they would vote for President Bush if the election were held today. Conversely, women’s opinions of Ms. Heinz-Kerry appear to be a more problematic issue for the Kerry-Edwards campaign. Of the 43 percent of women who rate Ms. Heinz-Kerry unfavorably, 86 percent say they will give their vote to President Bush.

October 16 – 20, 2004

Source: comScore Networks

  If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
% of Female Voters Bush-Cheney Kerry-Edwards
       
Rating of Laura Bush      
Unfavorable 13.8% 9.5% 84.2%
Favorable 58.2% 70.0% 21.8%
       
Rating of Teresa Heinz-Kerry      
Unfavorable 42.6% 86.0% 7.1%
Favorable 27.7% 8.7% 85.4%

n = 1,040

Margin of error +/- 3.0.

Respondent Pool: Registered female voters who are likely to vote.

About comScore Networks
comScore Networks provides unparalleled insight into consumer behavior and attitudes. This capability is based on a massive, global cross-section of more than 2 million consumers who have given comScore explicit permission to confidentially capture their browsing and transaction behavior, including online and offline purchasing. comScore panelists also participate in survey research that captures and integrates their attitudes and intentions. Through its patent-pending technology, comScore measures what matters across a broad spectrum of behavior and attitudes. comScore consultants apply this deep knowledge of customers and competitors to help clients design powerful marketing strategies and tactics that deliver superior ROI. comScore services are used by global leaders such as AOL, Microsoft, Yahoo!, Verizon, Best Buy, The Newspaper Association of America, Tribune Interactive, ESPN, Nestlé, Bank of America, Universal McCann, the United States Postal Service, GlaxoSmithKline and Orbitz. For more information, please visit www.comscore.com.

Contact:
Andrew Lipsman
comScore, Inc.
+1 312 775 6510
press@comscore.com



 

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